/tg/Station 13 • Lower Terry's average threat level.

Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2023 7:52 pm

by Turbonerd

The increased threat average made 70 and even 80 threat rounds become far more common. It's just way too much.

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2023 8:47 pm

by Vekter

I'm one more of these threads away from making one myself asking the headmins not to fuck with threat for the rest of their term.

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 8:53 am

by kinnebian

impossible balancing act

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 10:31 am

by mazur907

no

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 12:37 pm

by Timberpoes

I grabbed the stats for the last 171 Terry shifts we have recorded in the feedback database. That's all Terry shifts between 217704 and 218313 inclusive.

The config hasn't been changed for all 171 shifts.

Stats across all 171 shifts, correcting for pop count
If I correct the stats for pop counts, as shifts with less than 20 players linearly reduce the calculated and max threat, then:
Over the past 171 Terry shifts and correcting the threat for pop counts, the average threat is 51 and the median threat is 53.

Just to be certain, since the OP is complaining specifically about high threat levels, I can discard all lowpop shifts from the dataset.

Stats across the 84 higher pop shifts
If I completely exclude the lowpop shifts, that leaves 84 shifts with 20+ players ready shift start, thus the threat is generated up to 100:

There are three recorded shifts where an admin manually set the roundstart threat level:
218196 had its threat forced to 10 by an admin in a 60-pop roundstart shift.
218134 had its threat forced to 66 by an admin in a 55-pop roundstart shift.
217938 had its threat forced to 66 by an admin in a 40-pop roundstart shift.

Over these 84 shifts, the average threat is 54 and the median threat is 53.

46 out of 84 shifts are 50 threat or higher - 54%
36 out of 84 shifts are 60 threat or higher - 42%
26 out of 84 shifts are 70 threat or higher - 30%
18 out of 84 shifts are 80 threat or higher - 21%
7 out of 84 shifts are 90 threat or higher - 8%

The current config biases very, very slightly to the right of 50 threat, so the real world figures match up with the expectations from the config. This is merely an issue of perception.

Raw data:

Spoiler:

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 3:11 pm

by Turbonerd

I guess probably due to the dynamic curve changes the variance is a lot higher. Not sure if this is config related anymore.

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2023 5:51 am

by Cheshify

We currently have a thread about Raising LRP's threat level and lowering Terry's threat level.

This is late stage dynamic.

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:50 pm

by Not-Dorsidarf

I cant help but wonder if people are just really bad at estimating the threat levels, as even high threat rounds sometimes just dont spend a lot of it, while low threat rounds spiral into wild chaos with only a few antags because thats kinda how ss13 goes sometimes.

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:51 pm

by Imitates-The-Lizards

Cheshify wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 5:51 am We currently have a thread about Raising LRP's threat level and lowering Terry's threat level.

This is late stage dynamic.

Obviously this means Sybil wants Chaos while Terry wants peace.

Re: Lower Terry's average threat level.

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2023 6:32 pm

by Fikou

We feel for now leaning slightly to the right of 50 threat like Timberpoes said seems like a good model, seeing stuff like high/low threat round after round is more of an issue with codebase dynamic being pure enclosed RNG without caring about what happened the previous shift.

Fikou, Cheshify, TBM: +1