Cipher3 wrote:To be fair cedar, your two examples are a relative unknown and a game which has had development shut down recently, never making it big.
My point still stands. The fact that these "other" mobas keep popping up and instantly evaporating is more proof against the bubble than proof for it.
Yep, bubbles are characterized by a period of rampant speculation and the perception of infinite profit that, while seemingly real, does not actually exist.
Mobas as a genre are not behaving in this manner, and are not seen as a way to generate infinite profit. Trying to make an alternate Dota or LoL, without having a very realy pre-existing base or draw, almost certainly will end in near instant failure.
It would be like saying there was a football bubble because the XFL flopped because it couldn't compete with the fucking giant of the NFL. That only shows that the existing giant is entrenched and not budging, which is a large tell, though not guarentee, that this isn't a bubble.
The moba market is probably going to end up with only 3-5 mobas in the end doing well enough to really talk about, and with only a faction of them running at competitive play levels where you see the insane high end sponsorships like Coke.
My money is that Dota and LoL are going to endlessly compete for having "the" pro-play scene and both benefit from it, and we will see HoTS coast happily along using the hearthstone playerbase. Smite looked like it might become the tiny tim of the Moba genre for a bit becase surprisingly it has a tournament scene and relatively stable base but it hasn't broken the mil mark in people playing at once, so that puts it in the weird spot where it isn't dying, isn't growing, and is making money. I suspect it will colapse because HoTS probably will take home the "Most casual of all casual" market.